MORGANTOWN, West Virginia — It might sound a little dramatic to call a game in early October a “must-win,” but I think that is exactly where Rich Rodriguez and West Virginia find themselves heading into tomorrow’s matchup against Iowa State.
No, West Virginia’s season isn’t technically over with a loss. There would still be plenty of football left to play. But when you look at where this program is right now, what happened last season, and what the schedule looks like moving forward, it’s hard to overstate how important this game is.
The difference between 4-1 and 3-2 is massive.
Beat Iowa State and the Mountaineers are sitting at 4-1 with two straight home games coming up. Suddenly, the loss to Oklahoma State looks more like a bad Saturday than the beginning of something bigger. West Virginia gets some momentum back, confidence returns, and the Mountaineers have an opportunity to build on a really solid start to the season.
Lose, though, and things start to feel much different.
At 3-2, West Virginia would have dropped two games in a row after starting the season 3-0. All of the excitement surrounding that start would disappear pretty quickly, and the questions about whether this team is actually any better than it was a year ago would become much louder.
And that is ultimately why I believe this is such an important game for Rich Rodriguez.
This is Year 2 of his return to Morgantown. Nobody expected Rodriguez to completely rebuild West Virginia overnight, and there were always going to be growing pains along the way. But by the second season, there needs to be noticeable progress. West Virginia needs to look like a program moving forward rather than one still trying to find its footing.
That doesn’t mean Rodriguez needs to have West Virginia competing for a Big 12 championship immediately. It does mean this team needs to win games like this and show that last season was a starting point rather than the standard.
We saw what this team was capable of earlier in the season. The win at Virginia showed that West Virginia could go on the road against a good football team and win. The Mountaineers started 3-0 and gave fans a reason to believe that this season might be different.
Then came Oklahoma State.
West Virginia gave up 609 yards, made critical mistakes, and lost a game that completely changed the mood surrounding the program. One loss doesn’t ruin a season, but how a team responds to that loss can tell you quite a bit about where the program is headed.
That is what makes Iowa State so important.
If West Virginia goes on the road, responds to last week’s disappointment and finds a way to win, the Oklahoma State game becomes much easier to move past. The Mountaineers would return home at 4-1 with an opportunity to turn this into the type of season that would represent legitimate progress in Rodriguez’s second year.
But if West Virginia loses again, you’re suddenly looking at a 3-2 team that has lost consecutive games, and the pressure starts building quickly.
That’s why, for me, this is a must-win game.
Not because West Virginia’s season officially ends with a loss. It doesn’t. Not because Rich Rodriguez’s job is somehow on the line. It isn’t.
It’s a must-win because of what this season is supposed to represent.
Year 1 was about laying the foundation. Year 2 needs to be about taking a significant step forward. At some point, progress has to start showing up in the win column.
Tomorrow would be a pretty good time to start.
